Small Craft Advisory Eastern Gulf of Mexico

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 307 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015 ...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY... .SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)... DECAYING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS SEEING A DECREASE IN CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXITS THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BRINGING MANY PORTIONS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY A CHILLY NIGHT. PREFERRED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD MOS GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND A LOCAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURE STUDY. OVERALL...CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WILL NOTE THAT GFS MAV AND NAM MET GUIDANCE WERE CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. EVEN OUR LOCAL TEMPERATURE STUDY SHOWED THAT SOME CHILLIER TEMPERATURES COULD FIND THEIR WAY INTO AREAS EAST OF TAMPA BAY OVERNIGHT WHILE MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FREEZE WARNINGS IN LEVY COUNTY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION OVERNIGHT IN THE NATURE COAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA...CTY AT 66 AND OCF AT 68...SHOW THAT THERE WILL NEED TO BE A VERY PRODUCTIVE EVENING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO REACH FREEZING FOR A DURATION OF 2 HOURS OR MORE BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW. FOR TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME CLOUDS RETURNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO EFFICIENTLY WARM BACK INTO 60S AND 70S. SOME PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S DEPENDING ON THE WINDS AND HOW COLD THEY GET OVERNIGHT. THE SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE WAS NOT TOO DRASTIC...WITH A BLEND LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREFERRED. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)... A PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD SO A BLEND WILL BE USED. PLEASANT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A RETURN EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING MILDER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST IT WILL DAMPEN OUT SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL STILL HELP TO INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOME WITH THE SPEED PLACEMENT...AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...WITH THE 12Z GFS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES MODELS DO SHOW A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS CONVECTION THEN MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NATURE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH TODAY LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP OVERALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO A MINIMUM...BUT MODEST WIND FIELDS AND GOOD SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION AN INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES EXIT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. DURING FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA...WITH THIS FRONT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION... VFR RETURNING TO TERMINALS GRADUALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...NOT INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY MORNING BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE ABUNDANT ENOUGH TO CREATE FOG ISSUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 42 66 54 72 / 0 0 0 20 FMY 49 71 56 77 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 43 67 52 73 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 45 67 54 73 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 34 65 47 70 / 0 0 0 20 SPG 48 65 56 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ S$™