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Sunday, January 25, 2015

Flood and Marine Statement January 25 2015

FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 933 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 TXC347-401-405-419-261533- /O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150128T0300Z/ / 933 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ATTOYAC BAYOU NEAR CHIRENO. * UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 8:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...EXPECT LOWLAND FLOODING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OF THE HEAVILY WOODED FLOODPLAIN. RANCHERS THAT HAVE CATTLE AND EQUIPMENT NEAR THE RIVER SHOULD MOVE THEM TO HIGHER GROUND. && LAT...LON 3142 9432 3191 9451 3192 9447 3157 9429 3150 9430 $$
FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 933 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 TXC005-073-347-261533- /O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LUFT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150130T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 933 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ANGELINA RIVER NEAR LUFKIN. * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. * IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING. && LAT...LON 3144 9462 3145 9474 3148 9482 3150 9482 3146 9466 $$

FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 933 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 TXC005-225-373-455-457-261533- /O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-150127T0600Z/ /DIBT2.1.ER.150124T2230Z.150125T1515Z.150126T1200Z.NO/ 933 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...THE FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NECHES RIVER NEAR DIBOLL. * UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 9:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.3 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS. && LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485 3136 9500 $$
MIMPAC MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 614 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W. GOES WV IMGRY INDC AN UPR RDG OVR THE EPAC...AN UPR LOW S OF THE CAL WTRS...AND A TROF NR 145W. THE LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC A FRNTL BNDRY JUST W OF THE AREA...WITH THE ASSOC SFC LOW NR 39N141W. THE 06Z/00Z MDLS INDC THE LOW WL MOV NE OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS AND PASS NR THE NW WAS WTRS... THO THERE ARE SOME SLGT DIFFS ON THE TMG AND TRACK. THE GFS IS A BIT OF A SLOW OUTLIER...THO COMES INTO DECENT AGRMT WITH THE 00Z UKMET BY 48 HOURS. THE ECWMF STAYS FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND WKNS THE LOW FASTER. THE PREV FCST USED A CMPMS SOLN BTWN THE GFS AND ECMWF DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...AND WITH NO SOLID TREND DVLPG IN THE 06Z GUID...PLANNING ON STAYING ALNG THOSE LINES. OTRW...THE MDLS AGREE ON MAINTAINING THE UPR RDG OVR THE EPAC THRUT THE FCST PD...THO ALL ALSO INDC THE SHRTWV ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE SYS CRNTLY W OF THE AREA WL MOV OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG MON NGT INTO TUE. AS A RESULT...THE GUID INDC SFC HIGH PRES WL DOMINATE THE PTTN THRUT THE PD...AS A FEW SYS PASS TO THE NW OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GUID ALSO INDC AN H5 VORT WL PASS UNDER THE RDG TO THE COAST LATE WED INTO THU...AND A FEW SOLNS INDC IT WL DVLP INTO A CUTOFF LOW LATE IN THE PD. ALL SOLNS INDC THE SFC RFLCTN WITH A CSTL TROF...WHICH IS XPCTD TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH JUST W OF THE CAL OFSHR WTRS. THE GFS/GEM ARE STGR THAN THE UKMET/ECWMF WITH THE WINDS...AND INDC ABT 25 KT. THE GFS SEEMS A LTL MORE REALISTIC WITH THE IMTMSTY OF THE PRES GRAD...SO WL HAVE A FEW AREAS OF 25 KT LATE IN THE FCST PD. OTRW...WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE 06Z GUID...NOT PLANNING ON MKG ANY SIG CHANGES TO PREV FCST. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SUMMARY...A TROF WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE CALIF COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PZ5 AND NRN PZ6 WTRS FROM THE W TONITE... THEN WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE OFSHR AREAS MON INTO MON NITE AND LOW PRES PASSES NW AND N OF THE PZ5 WTRS. ANOTHER TROF WILL SLOWLY DVLP NEAR THE CALIF COAST WED THRU THU NITE. OTHW...HI PRES RDG WILL PREVAIL OVER THE OFSHR AREAS DURING THE FCST PRD. MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT BOTH IN EPAC AND ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE A TRAJECTORY FOR THE LOW ON MON THRU TUE WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DIFF THAN THE GEM/NOGAPS/UKMET. SINCE THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GUD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND HAVE GUD SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST WPC MED RNG FCSTR GUIDANCE...A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS 10M WILL BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS. .SEAS...THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAM ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFS AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE FCST PRD. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z MWW3/ECMWF WAM FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFS. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. .WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. .PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS... NONE. .PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS... NONE. $$ .FORECASTER KELLS/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
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Guy Perea Presidential Elector President of The United States

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