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Saturday, March 30, 2013

Hazardous Weather Outlook

110 PM CDT SAT MAR 30
2013ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-ADAIR
OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-CRAWFORD
AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE
OK-MADISON AR-MAYESOK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE
OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA
OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON
OK-WASHINGTON AR-110 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR
NORTHWESTAND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL ASMUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.RISK...ELEVATED.AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.FLASH
FLOOD.RISK...LIMITED.AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.HEAVY
RAIN.RISK...LIMITED.AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNINGHAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE
TEMPORARILY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOONTO DE-STABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THE PRESENCE
OF REMNANT OUTFLOWBOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATINGBOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT OFTHUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. INSTABILITYAND SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLEOF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAYMOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONTDROPS SOUTH OUT OF KANSAS. THIS ROUND OF STORMS WILL POSE
ALIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION
STATEMENT...ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK MAY BE NEEDED
LATER TODAY..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
HAZARDS.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONSUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ASTRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGINGYET ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS.MUCH COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONGWITH PERIODIC
CHANCES OF RAIN.
S$

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