---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: guy perea <guyperea@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 11 Aug 2012 12:32:05 +0800
Subject: ICE WILL PERSIST WITHIN 1 TO 3 NM OF POINT BARROW THROUGH SATURDAY
To: 2095315162.presidentus@blogger.com, dprit4.codedog1@blogger.com,
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SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA 435 PM AKDT FRIDAY AUGUST 10
2012
...UPDATED TO ADD THE 2012 FALL ICE OUTLOOK...
FORECAST VALID... WEDNESDAY AUGUST 15 2012
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE... HIGH TO MODERATE.
SYNOPSIS... THE STRONG ARCTIC LOW OVER THE ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH OF BANKSISLAND SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA FRIDAY AND SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SIBERIA ON MONDAY
BRINGING SOUTHERLYFLOW TO THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-ARCTIC OCEAN- -BEAUFORT SEA-PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO
DEMARCATION POINT- PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
THE BEAUFORT ICE EDGE LIES FROM THE COAST NEAR THE ALASKAN/CANADIAN
BORDER TO 72N 143.9W TO 72.1N 137.1W TO72.7N 132.1W TO 72.1N 129.6W TO
THE WEST COAST OF BANKS ISLAND. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY 1TO 4 TENTHS
YOUNG..NEW... FIRSTYEAR THIN AND MULTI YEAR ICE INSTRIPS.
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE THE ICE TO THE
EAST 15 TO 25 NM THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS AND LITTLE ICE
MOVEMENT MONDAY THROUGHWEDNESDAY.
-CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-WESTERNUS ARCTIC OFFSHORE- PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN
TO CAPE HALKETT- PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
THE CHUKCHI ICE EDGE LIES FROMTHE RUSSIAN COAST NEAR 67.4N 174.8W TO
67.4N 171.6W TO 69.8N 172.8W TO 70.3N 169W TO71.3N 165.4W TO 70.9N
161.9W TO 70.9 159.2W TO POINT BARROW. THE EDGE IS OPEN WATER. THE
MAIN ICE PACK LIES 15 TO 30NM FROM THE ICE EDGE.
ICE LIES 1 TO 3 NM OFF THE COAST AT BARROW AND IS MOVING WITH THE CURRENTS.
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR DEEP WATER AREAS... WESTERLY FLOW WILL
WEAKEN SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINIMAL ICE MOVEMENT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONSOLIDATING THE SOUTHERN ICE EDGE. NET ICE
MOVEMENT WILL BE 15 TO 20 NM TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR NEAR THE COAST... ICE WILL PERSIST
WITHIN 1 TO 3 NM OF POINT BARROW THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING 3 TO
5 NM OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OPEN WATER WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST SOUTH OF POINT BARROW
THE AUGUST YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.
BLEGATT 2012
$$
...AUGUST 2012 YEAR GROUP ANDFALL ICE OUTLOOK...
THE YEAR GROUP FOR AUGUST 2012 IS 2006. SEA ICE IN THE CHUKCHI AT THIS
TIME IS VERY NEARLY NORMAL. LOOKING AT RECORDS DATING BACK INTO THE
1970S ABOUT ONE HALF OF THE CHUKCHI ICE EXTENTS AT THE BEGINNING OF
AUGUST ARE SIMILAR TO THIS YEAR. IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA AND IN
THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND SEA ICE THIS YEAR IS BELOW
NORMAL AND NOT SIMILAR TO 2006. FOR THIS REASON 2009 WAS ALSO USED ASA
POSSIBLE YEAR GROUP.
DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOW
A VERYSIMILAR LA NINA TO EL NINO PATTERN IN 2006 AS SO FAR IN 2012.
THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF AN EL NINO THISFALL IS ALSO NEARLY THE
SAME PATTERN AS IN 2006.
A LA NINA IS A PERIOD OF COLDERTHAN NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. AN EL NINO IS A PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL PACIFIC
OCEAN TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING/COOLING OF THE WATERS IN THE PACIFIC
OCEAN IMPACT THE SEA ICE IN ALASKA WATERS BY CHANGING THE MEAN
POSITION OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREAS. THIS CHANGES THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF WARMER/COOLER AIR MASSES. A MUCH MORE DETAILED EXPLANATION
CAN BE FOUND ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE.
THE FALL 2012 OUTLOOK BELOW IS BASED ON ICE EVENTS IN 2006 AND 2009
WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR CURRENT ICE CONDITIONS AND DIFFERENCES IN
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA WATERS.
...2012 FALL SEA ICE OUTLOOK...
EVENT 2012 OUTLOOK DATE
LATEST ICE NEAR POINT BARROW LAST WEEK OF AUGUST
NORTH COAST ICE FREE 27 AUGUST POINT BARROW TO CANADA
ICE EDGE IN CHUKCHI SEA NORTH OF 72N 3 SEPTEMBER
...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK...
NEW ICE ALONG AK BEAUFORT SEA COAST 20 TO 25 SEPTEMBER
NEW ICE ALONG AK CHUKCHI SEA COAST 25 TO 30 SEPTEMBER
FIRST ICE AT KIVALINA 25 TO 30 OCTOBER
FIRST ICE IN NORTON BAY 1 TO 5 SEPTEMBER
NORTON SOUND ICE GREATER THAN 5 TENTHS 15 TO 20 NOVEMBER
FIRST ICE ALONG BERING STRAIT COASTS 25 TO 30 OCTOBER
FIRST ICE IN UPPER COOK INLET 1 TO 5 NOVEMBER
FIRST ICE IN LOWER COOK INLET 10 TO 15 NOVEMBER
LOOKING BACK AT THE WINTER OF 2006/2007 THE SEA ICE IN THE BERING SEA
WAS NEARLY NORMAL. ICE BEGAN FLIRTING WITH THE PRIBILOFS IN LATE
JANUARY... MOVING NORTH AND SOUTH WITH PASSING FRONTS... BUT DID NOT
STAY AT THE PRIBILOFS AND MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE BERING SHELF
UNTIL MID MARCH. THE SPRING RETREAT OF ICE IN THE BERING WAS A LITTLE
LATER THAN NORMAL. IN THE COOK INLET REGION MOST WOULD RATHER FORGET
THE WINTER OF 06/07 AS IT WAS A VERY EXTREME ICE YEAR. I WOULD NOT
EXPECT THE 2012/2013 ICE YEAR TO EXACTLY MATCH 06/07. ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY THROUGHTHE FALL AND
WINTER AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OUTLOOK WILL BE MADE EACH MONTH.
KCOLE 2012
$$
--
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Guy Ralph Perea Sr President of The United States
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